# Catalyst as Cause Confusion In his book "Antifragile," Nassim Taleb introduces the concept of "catalyst as cause" confusion. This refers to the tendency to mistake a catalyst for the cause of a particular event or outcome. Taleb argues that this confusion is particularly prevalent in complex systems, where there are many interacting factors that can contribute to an outcome. When a catalyst is identified, it is easy to assume that it caused the outcome, when in fact there may be many other factors at play. Obama’s mistake illustrates the illusion of local causal chains—that is, confusing catalysts for causes and assuming that one can know which catalyst will produce which effect. The final episode of the upheaval in Egypt was unpredictable for all observers, especially those involved. --- Date: 20230703 Links to: Tags: References: * []()