# Decision What is a decision? > A **decision** is a choice we make to overcome existing problems, avoid future problems, or seize opportunities. From a high level, it often involves one of the following three things: 1. Solving a problem. 2. Preventing a future problem. 3. Capitalizing on an opportunity. ### Hypothesis and Experiment Every decision that we make can be viewed as a **hypothesis** and **experiment** about what will happen in the future. Just as in a [traditional scientific experiment](scientific-experiment.md) , we need to observe **outcomes** to know if our decision actually improved our future. #### Timing Trade Off Consider a traditional scientific experiment, there are generally two competing forces at play: 1. If a hypothesis or experiment is created too quickly, the researchers may miss out on _vital information_ that could change the nature of the experiment, or update the hypothesis all together. Considering that experiments often require substantial time and resources, an ill formed hypothesis/experiment is a big risk. 2. If a hypothesis or experiment is deliberated on for too long, the researchers start to miss out on _opportunities_. This could be in the form of a solving a real world problem (for example a pandemic, global warming, etc), or it could be monetary. ### Good Decision What makes a good decision? Well, a few key things jump out: * Good decision making **compounds** over time to yield more time, energy and leverage in future decisions. * A good decision will make our future easier than our present. ### Number of options [Research has shown](Decision-quality-vs-number-of-options.md) that if we increase the number of options under consideration when making a given decision from two to three, quality of decisions increase markedly. We can contrast this with the [incredible findings](Prediction%20Quality%20vs%20Amount%20of%20Information%20in%20Horse%20Racing.md) of Paul Slovic and how quantity of information improves handicapper performance in horse betting. What is important to keep in mind is that we are dealing with two concepts that are related, but different: * *Options*: The things that we are choosing *between* when making a decision. * *Variables*: The pieces of information/evidence that we use to help make our decision. The key thing to keep in mind is that we likely want 3-5 for each. Slovic implicitly assumed that 5 pieces of information were better than 1 or 2. However, 40 was no better than 5. Likewise, a decision with 3-5 options is better than a decision where only 2 are under consideration. However, if you are making a decision and considering 40 options that is also going to reduce decision quality. At that point you must perform [Dimensionality-Reduction](Dimensionality-Reduction.md) and narrow it down to the 3-5 decisions that are actually worth your time. ### Source of all bad decisions > The source of all bad decisions is *something you didn't know at the time you made the decision*. --- tags: #decision-making #problem-solving #critical-thinking links: [Decision by Design MOC](Decision%20by%20Design%20MOC.md) created: 2020-11-19 modified: 2020-11-19